U.S. Pending Home Sales Index
Explore the NAR Pending Home Sales Index for the Austin area, featuring historical and current data on pending home sales trends. View the PDF for detailed insights into the Austin real estate market, sourced from the National Association of Realtors®
NAR Pending Home Sales Index – June 26, 2025 Update
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released the latest update to the Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), providing insight into contract signings for May and the first half of 2025. The data highlights continued challenges in the housing market, with pending sales remaining well below historical averages and showing modest month-over-month fluctuations.
The PHS for May 2025 came in at 87.8, marking a 1.4% increase from April's revised figure of 86.6. While this represents a slight improvement on a monthly basis, it reflects a 0.3% decline compared to May 2024, when the index stood at 88.1. To put these figures in perspective, the long-term historical average for May is 120.5, placing the current reading roughly 27.1% below average levels for this time of year.
This latest data follows a pattern seen throughout 2025. The year began with a January reading of 57.0, followed by 67.4 in February and 89.9 in March. April experienced a slight decline to 86.6 before the modest rebound in May. Despite small monthly gains, the overall index remains near multi-year lows, underscoring persistent headwinds for contract activity.
Looking at the broader trend, the PHS for the first five months of 2025 is down 25.1% compared to the historical average for the same period. This indicates a significant shortfall in pending home sales activity relative to typical market conditions, continuing the pattern seen throughout 2023 and 2024.
Year-over-year comparisons further illustrate the market's stagnation. After steep declines throughout 2023, pending home sales in 2024 hovered below historical norms, with little improvement carrying into 2025. The year-over-year change for May 2025, at -0.3%, reflects ongoing difficulty in achieving meaningful growth in signed purchase contracts.
The data also reveals how current conditions compare to previous cycles. During the peak housing boom years of 2004 and 2005, the PHS regularly exceeded 140 in the spring and summer months. By contrast, the current index remains below 90, reflecting subdued buyer activity despite more stable mortgage rates compared to the volatility of 2022 and 2023.
Month-over-month volatility has been a recurring theme historically, but 2025’s figures show relatively muted swings. May's 1.4% monthly increase is modest compared to the larger double-digit fluctuations seen in past cycles, such as the sharp rises and falls during the post-2008 recovery period and the pandemic-driven market of 2020-2021.
The broader context of these numbers reflects a market still grappling with affordability constraints, tight inventory in certain segments, and lingering caution among buyers. While mortgage rates have stabilized from their recent peaks, elevated home prices and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on consumer confidence and purchase activity.
It's worth noting that contract signings, as captured by the PHS, are a leading indicator for existing home sales, typically translating into closed sales within one to two months. With the index remaining weak, this suggests continued softness in closed transactions through the summer months.
Looking at historical data, the index's average for May across all years is 120.5, with a median of 122.8. This highlights the depth of the current market slowdown, with today's figure of 87.8 falling more than 27% below typical May levels.
Regional breakdowns were not included in this release, but national figures alone emphasize the cautious approach many buyers are taking amid persistent affordability pressures and uncertain economic signals.
The trend from 2022 to 2025 paints a clear picture of prolonged contraction in pending home sales. After sharp year-over-year declines of over 20% throughout 2023, modest stabilization occurred in 2024, but without substantial recovery. The first half of 2025 shows little evidence of reversing that course, with pending activity still lagging significantly behind long-term norms.
As the market moves through the summer, eyes will remain on key metrics such as mortgage rates, inventory levels, and affordability indexes to gauge whether a sustained recovery in contract activity is on the horizon. For now, the PHS suggests that the housing market remains in a state of subdued demand, with limited momentum for near-term growth.
Copyright ©2025“Pending Home Sales.” NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. May 30, 2025. https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales
